Bayesian Statistics of the Drug Test
Bayesian Statistics of the Drug Test
Bayesian Statistics of the Drug Test
Instructions Use the attached files and your research skills to answer the following questions for a total of 2 points of extra credit. 1. What is the probability that someone who gets a positive drug test is actually a drug user, according to the example in drug.test.pdf? How does this compare to your idea of the reliability of drug testing? (0.5 points) 2. Find a statistic about the use rate of a drug in the population of the United States (% of people in the U.S. who have used a drug). State the drug, its use rate, and the government survey you used as a source. (0.5 points) 3. The actual false positive rate of a drug test is 5-10%, and the actual false negative rate is 10-15%. Use this information and the statistic you found in Question 2 to calculate the chance that a positive test result is correct (you can follow the example from drug.test.pdf, substituting real values). SHOW ALL OF YOUR WORK. (1 point) Optional Bonus Reading (don’t use this for your assignment; it won’t help!): https://academic.oup.com/jat/article/40/9/726/2527449
